In roulette, playing with patience and discipline eliminates the need to make large bets to recover previous losses. Brett Morton explains.
I met a cynical friend the other day who joined me and my son in the casino. He came and left still not believing that it was possible to win at roulette despite both my son and I winning while he ranted his negative theories. As a skilled mathematician, he blinds himself with talk of the odds (the house edge) and in the long run. This means that he is blinkered to the fact that while it is impossible to change the odds, at least it is possible to improve the chances of winning by strict money management, knowing the wheel, watching for the way that the dealer is spinning and reading the track record from the number display boards.
If a player bets $5 every spin on an even chance, then in the long run, the result will be disaster. Flat or level betting like that is a bound to mean that in the long run, the house edge of over 5% on the 00 wheel will ensure that of every 38 spins, 20 are lost. Betting on red, there will be 18 wins and 20 losses on black, zero and double-zero. Most systems seek to win by increasing stakes on losses, something that I think is generally unattractive. Too soon, you find yourself chasing an original loss of $5 with a bet of $200 – and all depending on the whims of a small bouncy ball.
Most systems play on the instinctive greed of players keen to win all the time encouraging them to recoup losses quickly whether by doubling up (the Martingale) or by even more aggressive strategies. In contrast, playing with patience and discipline eliminates the need to make large bets to recover earlier losses. Chasing losses is a mug’s game! Don’t do it!
So if I am convinced that flat bet staking is wrong and that chasing losing bets with ever bigger bets is dumb, what am I suggesting? Simple! After every losing bet, either reduce the stake if possible or at least flat bet. Five losing bets of $10 means you are down $50. Had you been doubling up, you would have lost $310 so far and your next bet would need to be $320 to leave you $10 ahead – and that’s assuming your next bet wins! Far better, in my view, to wait for a win and then to increase your stake. Your loss of five $10 bets can be won back with less risk by staking $10 on the sixth bet. If that wins, stake $15 on the next, $20 on the next and $25 on the next. In four winning spins, you can recover the losses and win $20 on top. That is a fairly aggressive strategy because while you are not doubling on each win, you are still expecting to win four successive bets – a speculative hope that is more likely not to occur. A safer alternative is to win two bets in a row and return to the base flat bet, seeking always only to win two bets in a row with the second bet 50% higher than the first.
Long runs of reds or low numbers occur – occasionally into the twenties and frequently beyond ten in a row, so that doubling up is a dangerous pastime. If the Martingale bites, then the long climb back means winning dozens of bets and every time being exposed to the risk of yet another long adverse run. So, be a tortoise, not a hare. Tortoises can go home winning most days. Using these methods with skill, patience, experience and discipline, winning four times out of five is a realistic goal.
At the casino, that evening, my son and I were neither exceptionally lucky or unlucky. It was a typical session where we left with around 40% more money than we started with. But my friend still prefers his own mathematical theories to what he saw with his own eyes! Next time, I shall explain more about why roulette is a percentage game and how you need to remember that to win as often as I do.
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